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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
169
ABNT20 KNHC 201144
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
Summary for Hurricane Erin (AT5/AL052025)
...LARGE ERIN STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADED NORTH... ...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 the center of Erin was located near 30.1, -73.7 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Erin Public Advisory Number 37
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 677 WTNT35 KNHC 201454 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...LARGE ERIN STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADED NORTH... ...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 73.7W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WSW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 73.7 West. Erin is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely during the next day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight. Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning late today. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Erin Forecast Advisory Number 37
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2025 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201453 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......220NE 230SE 130SW 160NW. 4 M SEAS....420NE 420SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 240SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 230SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 50 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 34 KT...290NE 280SE 240SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 100SE 110SW 80NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...320NE 330SE 260SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 90SE 100SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 340SE 270SW 260NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 340SW 260NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 210SW 120NW. 34 KT...280NE 380SE 420SW 360NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 73.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Erin Forecast Discussion Number 37
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Corrected eye dropsonde wind to 19 kt and minimum pressure to 941 mb Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 19 kt winds so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 941 mb. The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants. Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of 350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement with the various dynamical model consensus predictions. Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 201454 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 8 18(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Erin Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 14:58:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 15:22:14 GMT
Hurricane Erin Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Hurricane Erin Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2025 14:55:46 GMT
Local Statement for Wakefield, VA
Issued at 1111 AM EDT
Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at 1109 AM EDT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
399
ABPZ20 KNHC 201145
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 20 Aug 2025 16:08:14 GMT