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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 092319
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Development of
this system appears unlikely during the next couple of days due to
surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during
the middle part of next week while the system moves northward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 10 Aug 2025 00:00:26 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
985
ABPZ20 KNHC 092310
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 9 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several
hundred miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm
Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific basin a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Tropical Storm Ivo (EP4/EP092025)
...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Aug 09 the center of Ivo was located near 21.0, -113.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Ivo Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 113.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 113.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 722 WTPZ44 KNHC 092038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear is displacing most of Ivo's convection south of the center, and the convective mass itself has begun to shrink. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a T3.0 classification from TAFB, and this is also supported by a recent ASCAT pass which showed a maximum of 38 kt (but is likely limited by the instrument's resolution). Continued moderate shear, gradually cooling sea surface temperatures, and a stable air mass ahead of Ivo are forecast to continue the weakening trend. GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery show all deep convection dissipating by 36 hours, which is when Ivo is shown degenerating into a remnant low in the official forecast. Dissipation is now expected by day 3, which is when the remnant low loses its integrity in the global model fields. Ivo has been moving westward, or 280/6 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to keep Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward track through dissipation. There is low spread among the track models, and only minor adjustments were made to the new NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 493
FOPZ14 KNHC 092038
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Ivo Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 20:44:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 21:27:01 GMT