Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 14 Jul 2026 20:50:26 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

448 
ABPZ20 KNHC 141726
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized and 
are producing gusty winds in association with an area of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. The circulation is also becoming better 
defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is expected to form later today while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward, staying well offshore of the 
coast of Mexico. For additional information, including gale 
warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with 
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of 
the Hawaiian Islands. A tropical depression could still form over 
the next day or two while the system moves little. The disturbance 
is expected to move into less favorable environmental conditions 
later this week, likely ending its chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the 
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce an area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development, and the system could 
become a tropical depression later in the week while it moves 
slowly northwestward, remaining well southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end 
of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well 
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on 
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.php

$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen

Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052026)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Jul 14 the center of Five-E was located near 14.8, -109.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026 000
WTPZ35 KNHC 142040
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected by late Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Katz

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026 000
WTPZ25 KNHC 142040
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 109.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142040
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026
 
Over the past day, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
the disturbance we have been tracking for the past several days
(96E) has become much better organized.  The latest subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB is T-2.5/35 kt.  A recent ASCAT-C pass
shows a closed, albeit somewhat elongated surface circulation,
with wind speeds that support a 30-kt intensity.  Satellite imagery
has shown improved organization since the time of the ASCAT pass,
and it is likely that the low now has a well-defined circulation.
Therefore, advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are being
initiated at this time.
 
The depression is being steered quickly westward by the subtropical
ridge to its north, with an initial motion estimated at 275/16 kt.
The depression is forecast to slow down a bit in a day or two,
followed by a turn toward the northwest around Thursday night, as a
weakness in the mid- to upper-level ridging develops to the north
of the cyclone.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement
through the first 3 days of the forecast, with gradually increasing
spread after that.  The NHC forecast closely follows a blend of 
the HCCA corrected consensus and the TVCN simple consensus 
models.
 
The cyclone will be traveling through very favorable environmental
conditions for the next 72 hours with very warm sea-surface
temperatures, weak vertical wind shear, and a relatively moist
environment.  Slow strengthening is likely for the first 24 hours
as the cyclone works on developing a core.  After that time, steady
strengthening is forecast.  The NHC forecast is between the middle
and higher end of the intensity guidance suite, in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical models.
SHIPS guidance indicates that rapid intensification is a
possibility with this system.  Given the favorable environment, it
is possible this system could strengthen more than what the
official forecast currently shows.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 14.8N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Katz

Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 142040
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052026               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34 41   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
15N 115W       34  X  13(13)  52(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
15N 115W       50  X   1( 1)  17(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  29(36)   1(37)   X(37)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)  11(57)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   9(27)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ

Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2026 20:42:04 GMT