Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102314
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:28:43 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102317
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and on 
Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles west- 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 500 miles 
to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad 
trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible over the next few days into the weekend while it moves 
generally northward and then meanders to the southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is 
anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early 
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward 
over the central and western portions of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026)

...NORBERT GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Sep 10 the center of Norbert was located near 16.4, -121.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 6

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 110238
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026
 
...NORBERT GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER OPEN WATERS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 121.9W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 121.9 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue through Friday, with a turn to the 
west-northwest likely on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Norbert could 
become a hurricane this weekend.  
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 110237
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 121.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026 406 
WTPZ44 KNHC 110239
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026

Norbert continues to show a shear pattern on satellite imagery, 
with the center located on the western edge of a strong and growing 
area of convection.  Objective satellite estimates are higher than 
the last advisory, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 
kt.  Only slow strengthening is anticipated for the next few 
days while Norbert experiences light-to-moderate westerly shear 
over warm waters, though close to some dry mid-level air.  Thus, 
Norbert will likely have some challenges developing an inner core, 
probably preventing any rapid changes in the near-term.  Model 
guidance is higher than the last cycle overall, and the new 
intensity forecast is raised slightly from the previous one.  The 
long-range intensity is a challenge given the large latitudinal 
spread in the track guidance as well as the possibility of 
increasing shear.  

The tropical storm's motion remains westward at 12 kt.  A mid- 
level ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast to build westward 
in tandem with Norbert during the next few days, keeping the 
cyclone moving westward to west-northwestward.  A south-of-west 
track is possible by next week, depending on the future orientation 
of the ridge and the position of Norbert.  The ECMWF has been 
showing this west-southwest motion for a few runs now, and with the 
Google DeepMind now in closer agreement, the official forecast is 
shifted southward at long range.  Otherwise few changes were made 
to the previous forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 16.4N 121.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 110238
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142026               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)   1(27)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  15(26)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:28:29 GMT