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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
409
ABNT20 KNHC 141722
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Beven
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 14 Oct 2026 22:31:27 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141740
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Trudy, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Summary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
...TRUDY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Oct 14 the center of Trudy was located near 11.9, -100.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142045 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 ...TRUDY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 100.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Trudy. Watches will likely be required tonight or Thursday for portions of these areas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.0 West. Trudy is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, Trudy could approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding, especially in areas along steep terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142044 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 30SE 10SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.5N 100.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.2N 101.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.0N 101.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 105.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142047 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 Trudy continues to become better organized, with the central convective mass becoming larger and colder. Recent SAR, ASCAT and SSMIS passes give higher confidence that the center position is now embedded underneath the middle of the impressive-looking convective overcast. The latest TAFB intensity estimate is 4.0/65 kt, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been increasing, now in the 44-51 kt range. The ASCAT-B pass from around 16Z had a peak wind retrieval of 51 kt. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is conservatively set at 55 kt. Based on microwave center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, Trudy has been moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends over central Mexico. However, the ridge is expected to weaken on Thursday, as Trudy moves closer to Hurricane Simon. The two tropical cyclones are forecast to be within 500 miles of each other by Thursday evening, which could be close enough to influence each other's steering. By Thursday, an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough in the west-central Gulf of America and this possible interaction with Simon should cause Trudy to turn north-northwestward and possibly northward for a time Thursday night or Friday. As Simon finally moves northwest late in the forecast period, it should allow the ridge to build back in and induce Trudy to make a leftward turn back toward the northwest. Since Simon is a small tropical cyclone though, it may not have much of an influence on Trudy's track, which could allow Trudy to turn west-northwestward and away from the coast of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 96 hours, but is farther south at day 5, indicating a sharper turn toward the west-northwest or west by the end of the forecast period. Environmental conditions continue to look quite favorable along Trudy's track through the next 60 hours, although recent NESDIS glider observations suggest that Trudy may briefly traverse lower ocean heat content for 24 hours between this evening and Thursday evening before reaching higher ocean heat content again. The wind shear will remain low through about 60 hours, but the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly vertical wind shear around 20 kt from day 3 to 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, calling for steady to rapid intensification over the next couple of days, peaking around 115 kt around hour 60. This is similar to the HCCA, GDMI, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B, all of which peak Trudy as a major hurricane between 105-120 kt in about 60 hours. After that time, increasing wind shear and drier air should cause steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the overall model guidance suite. NHC continues to call for Trudy to get close to the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane, and given the track uncertainty, residents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement their hurricane plan. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. 2. Large swells will likely begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 11.9N 100.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 12.5N 100.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 101.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 14.0N 101.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.8N 102.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.9N 103.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.8N 105.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 19.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 142046
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 3(42)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 43(65) 2(67)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 2(35)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 7(59) 1(60)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) 1(22)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 3(42) X(42)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18)
15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Tropical Storm Trudy Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:28:34 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Simon (EP5/EP202026)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS WEAKENED FURTHER... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CYCLONE... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Oct 14 the center of Simon was located near 19.3, -108.3 with movement SW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 30
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142054 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS WEAKENED FURTHER... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 108.3W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor Simon. Watches or warnings may be required for portions of Baja California Sur over the next day or two. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 108.3 West. Simon is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The hurricane is likely to move slowly and erratically through Thursday night. A motion toward the north or north-northwest is forecast to begin by Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to at least 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through Thursday night, followed by weakening on Friday and into the weekend. Simon is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026 250 WTPZ25 KNHC 142053 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.8N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.9N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 30
Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142055 TCDEP5 Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 Simon is showing how small tropical cyclones can undergo rapid weakening as well as rapid intensification. A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) overpass near 13Z showed winds in the eyewall of 65-75 kt, suggesting that the intensity in the previous advisory was too high. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has just reported that the storm is now weaker, with no hurricane-force winds present so far at 700 mb. The central pressure is near 989 mb based on a dropsonde with a surface pressure of 993 mb and surface winds of 41 kt. The initial intensity is reduced to 65 kt based mainly on the central pressure, and it is likely that this is generous. The aircraft reported a 16-nm wide eye open to the southwest and a larger radius of maximum wind than shown by the earlier SAR data. The hurricane continues drifting southwest or 235/3 kt. For the next day or so, Simon should continue drifting southwestward or southward in an area of light steering currents, with the center remaining well offshore. After that time, there remains some spread in the track guidance models. While all of the global models agree that a mid- to upper-level trough should form west of Baja California near and after 48 h, there remains disagreement on how this will affect Simon's track. The HAFS models keep the cyclone moving southward through 72 h, while the GFS model does not show any northward turn until 48 h. The remainder of the guidance forecasts a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest around 36 h, with that motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The new track forecast follows the latter scenario in anticipation that the center will try to follow convective bursts displaced to the north by southerly shear. Overall, the track guidance envelope has shifted westward since the previous advisory, and so has the track forecast. Simon is currently experiencing light to moderate northerly shear and dry air entrainment, and this combination has at least temporarily disrupted the eyewall convection. The shear is likely to subside during the next 6-18 h, and based on this the intensity forecast keeps the cyclone as a minimal hurricane. After 36 h, increasing southerly and southwesterly upper-level winds between the trough to the northwest and Tropical Storm Trudy to the southeast should cause significant shear over Simon. The intensity forecast shows steady weakening during this time, and there is a possibility that Simon could weaken faster and dissipate sooner than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. Watches or warnings could be required for portions of Baja California Sur over the next day or two. 2. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 19.3N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.1N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.5N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.3N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 22.8N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 24.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 26.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 142054
PWSEP5
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Simon Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:22:49 GMT